Predictions by economists for our nation’s coming economic troubles have been mounting in their intensity for years. Now these warnings are roaring and imploding like the great wildfires burning through Alberta and British Columbia, Canada.
Here are two reports from among the analysts that I have been following and studying. Harry Dent says that his patterns of stock market and other economic downturns over four hundred years show that when real estate and commodities and other bubbles burst, the leading cause is real estate.
Leading cause of the Great 30’s Depression he reports was the demise of real estate. This was at the time when the U.S. was primarily made up of farmers. The new technology of tractors and more land which they’d been buying went fine until banks failed and they couldn’t repay loans and lost everything.
We’re in an Indian Summer now and Harry expects that in the next months real estate may shed 48 percent of its value; new cars, too. The economic peaks and valleys are driven from diapers to real estate by the predictable things people do.
Baby boomers are now in their 70- 80’s. The peak in age for need for nursing home care is 84 years. There are l09 million boomers who will be selling, not buying real estate. He anticipates a shortage of buyers until 2036. Now our most beloved asset, the home, becomes the most illiquid one. The younger generations, like Echo Boomers, face job insecurity and student loan debt and are slow to buy a home.
Demographic cycles accurately predict economic cycles. Our nation is changing and we all sense this but can’t put our finger on why. Thom Hartmann in his book, The Crash of 2016, makes a good case that mainly it’s the corporations who now have been given by the Supreme Court the rights of people. Jobs have gone away and factories here have been shuttered. His story of one bankrupt country in which the workers on their own went to the deserted factory where they had worked and began to make the product is eye-opening.
That country now has over 250 such worker-coops and is having economic recovery. He explains the way critical social lessons fade over time and how dangerous that cycle is. According to Hartman, we are at the tail end of such a cycle today and are on the precipice of tremendous change.
In my next blog, inflation and deflation and how experts predict that to unfold.